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NickL #875816 03/27/22 2:17 pm
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'shiners call that first part 'the heads'


1972 Triumph T120
1968 BSA A65
1968 MGB Roadster
1979 Chevrolet Camaro Berlinetta
1969 Honda Mini Trail
2004 Honda Shadow Aero
1949 Ferguson TE20 tractor
1975 yamaha xs650b
1972 Norton commando
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henryanthony #876036 03/29/22 4:24 am
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Originally Posted by henryanthony
Originally Posted by DavidP
Mama told me that drinking homemade licker would make me blind, so I only drink enough to need glasses. laugh
I might wish to find the local moonshiner and rejet my carbs. I paid $5.20 for non ethanol premium today.

Yo mama was right! The initial product of distillation may include methanol which is a poison. Commercial distilleries monitor this process very carefully.
I once woke up in the ditch after having some shine at a Norton rally. I couldn't see, and I thought that mama was right.
Until I realized that I'd lost my glasses two campsites ago. laughing


It's not a bug, it's 'character.'

72 T120V cafe project "Mr. Jim"
72 T150V "Wotan"
92 BMW K100rs "Gustav"
NickL #876119 03/29/22 11:07 pm
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I will say this about glue. I'm building a plastic model and the new "sniff-proof" stuff doesn't hold worth shucks.
Same for water-based contact cement.


It's not a bug, it's 'character.'

72 T120V cafe project "Mr. Jim"
72 T150V "Wotan"
92 BMW K100rs "Gustav"
NickL #876178 03/30/22 4:13 pm
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I will agree that speculation is responsible for the current spike in fuel prices but also consider this. Some politicians have been waging war on fossil fuels for years now, and no matter how little or how much actual control they may have over pricing, words do matter. Would you be willing to invest long term in something that elected officials have vowed to tax and regulate out of existence? No matter how much we would like to electrify, the technology to do it on a scale large enough to do away with oil is not here yet. We are IME stuck with widespread fossil fuel use for the next 20 to 30 years if not more. It would be nice if that was taken into account by those that think it's as easy as flipping a switch and plugging the oil wells up for good. Home heating oil here in NH passed $5.30 a gallon. That works out to over $1000.00 to fill an average tank that in many cases will last a month in typical winter weather up here.


1960 BSA A10
2007 Suzuki Bandit
1957 A10
(Used to be a Triumph here)
71 Norton Commando
17 Triumph Bonneville

NickL #879395 05/03/22 7:52 pm
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Interesting youtube vid on the history of lead in fuel, how one man did more planetary damage than any other living organism.


71 Devimead, John Hill, John Holmes A65 750
56 Norbsa 68 Longstroke A65
Cagiva Raptor 650
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NickL #879442 05/04/22 6:58 am
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Stunted intelligence kinda explains the current political climate, doesn't it.


It's not a bug, it's 'character.'

72 T120V cafe project "Mr. Jim"
72 T150V "Wotan"
92 BMW K100rs "Gustav"
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NickL #879666 05/06/22 4:46 am
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FWIW
The tonnage of easily adsorbed lead oxides used in paints that powdered off and became road & houshold dust dewarfs the tonage put into petrol by many orders of magnitude
But sueing paint companies is not as sexy as pilloring fuel companies
If you don't look for things you never find them
The bulk of the environmental free lead has come from paint and it is still being used in a lot of paints because there is no viable substitute for the UV protection it gives to large steel & cast iron structures like bridges & gasometers .
It is very cheap & easy to take a dust sample or air sample and do a strait chemical lead content
And of course because lead is very heavy the weight percentages always look massive.
Doing molecular lead determinatins is very expensive so it does not get done very often but that is the only way to determine where the lead actually came from but if you have a predetermined culprit then you do not want to know that .
Rignt now lead is a major addition to car tyres so road side dust will always show high lead levels and the ego inflaters will naturally attribute it all to those nasty petrol companies because they are all evil and it is fashionable to blame them for everything .

A sizeable amount of the lead found in sea water can be attributed to climate change as the increased amount of sulphur & co2 in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution has drastically incrreased the occurance of carbonic acid and sulhhuric acid both of which attack lead roofing products .
Nitrates in the atmosphere attack the bare lead when the above acids have removed the protective oxides from the surface .

Nothing is as simple as You tube likes to make it out .

Strait lead metal can not be adsorbed by animals
The standard experiment was to get undergratuate to swallowsome lead shot then when recovered wash & dry it
The results were always the same the dry weight in was the same as the dry weight out down to the 5th decimal place
Lead oxides are a different matter they are easily adsorbed by a human body
Tetra ethyl lead prior to combustion is easly adsorbed both in the digestive tract and through the skin, this includes breathing it in but it has the be highly atomised first so you have to be breathing in a petrol mist .
Post combustion it is very hard to be adsorbed untill prolonged exposure to UV rays starts to break it down, basic high school entropy .
Remember just becaue the road is wet that does not mean it has been raining .

Now it has been 40ish years since I was involved in biological monitoring of lead in the foundry workers plus environmental monitoring of lead in the surrounding ares, including the tidal canal next to the foundry and the same for the 6 battery plants we ran .

There is a lot more to lead than just petrol
Medically it is really only a problem in developing children and no arguement , it can be a very big problen to developing brains .
Adults usually suffer nothing worse than annemia as the lead bonds to the hemoglobin preventing it from taking up oxygen .
And that reverses with reduced exposure as the kidneys have no problem removing it from most people.
The two screening tests were hemoglobins & lead in urine
So if it is in your urine ( or stools ) then the body is purging it from your system
The stuff you really need to worry about is the stuff that accumulates like mercury and even nice safe zinc .

All metal oxides, sulfides & chlorides are posonious it is just a matter of the degree of the toxicity


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NickL #879689 05/06/22 12:12 pm
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The standard experiment was to get undergratuate to swallowsome lead shot then when recovered wash & dry it.

that takes some faith in chemistry on the part of everybody involved.


i'm old enough to remember when patriotism meant not trying to overthrow the government.
kevin #879704 05/06/22 1:21 pm
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...it is really only a problem in developing children
That's it?
Lead, the other, other white meat.


1970 T120R - 'Anton'
1970 Commando - 'Bruno'
1967 T120R - 'Caesar'
1968 Lightning - 'Dora'
NickL #879710 05/06/22 1:56 pm
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Lead? think of a US bombing mission over Germany, 500 bombers, each burning 300 gallons per hour of high tetraethyl content gasoline, this times a thousnd during the war...And all the aircraft stationed in the UK, where did all the lead go?


61 hot rod A10, 89 Honda 650NT .On a bike you can out run the demons
"I don't know what the world may need
But a V8 engine is a good start for me
Think I'll drive to find a place, to be surly"
Hillbilly bike #879725 05/06/22 3:54 pm
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Originally Posted by Hillbilly bike
Lead? think of a US bombing mission over Germany, 500 bombers, each burning 300 gallons per hour of high tetraethyl content gasoline, this times a thousnd during the war...And all the aircraft stationed in the UK, where did all the lead go?

kind of a drop in the bucket
compared to how much oil is consumed
World wide
every day
today

but as far as the lead emitted from a bomber in World War II
it went as far as Antarctica , where lead from "human activity" can be found in ice core samples

the world uses more than 10 times as much oil ,
every day ,
as compared to WW2 .

Civilian use of gasoline was rationed , in ww2 , so that more could be used by the military .
Non-essential cars got up a black ration stamp , entitling them to just 3 gallons a week .
and there was a national speed limit of 35 mph .

With the elimination of lead from gasoline ,
Atmospheric lead , in the usa , has been reduced 98 percent
... and levels of lead in blood show a similar decline

NickL #879738 05/06/22 5:46 pm
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I was talking about lead, not gasoline use..I believe by 1970 there were measurable levels of lead or lead bromide along side the roads...
I used leaded race fuel in my land speed race Triumphs. Once the sealed cans are opend the fuel should be used up in a week or so even when resealed...I always have a few gallons left over that goes into my street bikes...


61 hot rod A10, 89 Honda 650NT .On a bike you can out run the demons
"I don't know what the world may need
But a V8 engine is a good start for me
Think I'll drive to find a place, to be surly"
NickL #881808 05/30/22 1:00 am
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It's not a bug, it's 'character.'

72 T120V cafe project "Mr. Jim"
72 T150V "Wotan"
92 BMW K100rs "Gustav"
DavidP #881820 05/30/22 8:48 am
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Nice long video to suck you into buying the course.
After watching all of it I am now totally convinced that G5 phone towers cause Autism & vaccinating your children cause Covid .
While his point might be valid and yes profit taking is a cuase of gradual price increases the massive rises & falls are speculation purely & simply .
Almost an exact same set of reinvestemnt charts can be produced for almost any manufactured item, like cars for instance an car prices are not going through the roof .
When there is a hint of the possability of a shortage in any traded comodity the speculators dive in starting a price rise
Then the automated trading systems see a rising price & they jump into the market again forcing the price to skyrocket and this stay that way till they get to the return rate the programmers want then they sell out and when enough sell the price starts to drop.
The netagive price comes from there being so much unused oil in storeage, there was nowhere to store any excess so no-one wanted the unallocated production. Iff you remember back that far there was lots of concern that major market traders like pension funds & hedge funds would go to the wall because they had bought so many futures they could neither sell nor of course process them so they would be required to pay them out for no return . it is not like you can find an empty warehouse to store the 50,000,000,000 barrels ( volume) of oil that is not being used this week .
He skillfully avoided the fact that the bulk of oil is sold on long term fixed rate supply contracts not on his charted stock market prices .
The oil refineries have to work this way becase they can not just flick a switch & stop production so they enter into long term contracts that can be several years in duration for the bulk of what they predict they will need then either buy or sell on the short term market to get the extra if they underestimated or sell off the excess if they over estimated .
Graphs & charts are nice and if you play with the axies scales enough you can just about get any two charts to match perfectly .
There is a limited storeage capacity for unused oil so there is no point in oversupplying and there is a price point where a lot of the other uses like fertalizers & plastics become uneconomic so are manufactured brom different feed stock like vegetable oils & wood chips so supply & demmand will follow each other relatively tightly
The discretionary use of oil products is only a minor part of consumption.
If fuel went down to 10¢ a gallon hown many extra miles would you drive ?
He also ignored China and their introduction of a new Asian fuel index & fuures trading market .

Very persuasive till you slow down a bit and have a think .


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BSA_WM20 #881833 05/30/22 1:34 pm
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Originally Posted by BSA_WM20
...the massive rises & falls are speculation purely & simply .

So the effect of Covid was nil?
The closing of borders, the shuttering of the airline industry, the cessation of economic activity, the laying off of hundreds of millions?


1970 T120R - 'Anton'
1970 Commando - 'Bruno'
1967 T120R - 'Caesar'
1968 Lightning - 'Dora'
NickL #881835 05/30/22 1:39 pm
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If you drink too much, just take a Taxi. Just remember to return it the next day.


Who are the Brain Police?

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NickL #881863 05/30/22 6:25 pm
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[Linked Image from i.postimg.cc]


BeezaBryan

He knows not where he's going, For the ocean will decide,
Its not the destination, It's the glory of the ride (Edward Monkton, Zen Dog)





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Hugh Jörgen #881926 05/31/22 6:37 am
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Originally Posted by Hugh Jörgen
Originally Posted by BSA_WM20
...the massive rises & falls are speculation purely & simply .

So the effect of Covid was nil?
The closing of borders, the shuttering of the airline industry, the cessation of economic activity, the laying off of hundreds of millions?

yes they all feed into the equation and the drop in consumption would have caused a big drop in profitability .
And now consumption is up every one is trrying to make up for lost profits
While we did not drive to work we did run home heaters
Qantas for instance has Jet1 aupply contracts 3 years out so that would have cost a bomb thus $ 10,000 air fares .

Like all good con jobs and as stated at the very beggining there is some truth in his story but lack of investment is not the only or even prime reason for sudden price hikes, lack of reinvestment causes slow increases .
When the price hike hit following the invasion of the Ukrane one of the economist presented a supply & demmand curve.
There was no unusual flutuations in either but a massive price hike because the desk jockies saw a chance to create panic and panic makes profits .
It is the same thing that dives crypto currencies up & down except in their case the item itself has no instringic value but some one says it will increase in price so every one jumps on the band waggon expecting to cash in on the increase in price .
I know the car example was off left field a bit but it was the first thing htat came to mind where we should all know reinvestment has been curtailed in favour of dividends .
He also failed to mention that many financal instutions will not finance new oil wells as their economic forcasters predict that the investments will not produce the returns required as they have decided that oil consumption will drastically be reduced .
HE also failed to mention that not all oil gets made into petrol .
Aust oil for instance is almost excluseivly turned into lubrication oils as it is uneconomic to turn it into petrol
I think his little barrel chart applies purely to Texas light sweet crude as I have seen that same chart before
It is also USA specific but as he is in the USA that is to be expected .
If you prevent businesses who do not refine oils from buying futures and the price will drop quite drastically because the refiners have no reason the pay a higher price than they need to for their oil as it is one of the few cases where the factory has to pay for their raw materials before the consummer pays for it which is why they have future supply contracts with big users like railway lines & airlines .
However these are generall at a lower than current spot price , other wise there would be no reason to have them and even lesser reason to pay for all or part up front before delivery unless you have predicted to get it at a lower price .
If you stretched out his supply & demand curves along the time access you would see wild variations on an almost daily basis with an inverse price curve
Ideally output would equal demand but that is impossible to do because there are a massive amount of things that affect consumption like covid, fire, floods even a run of really cold days or very heavy snow falls or really hot days


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NickL #881943 05/31/22 1:37 pm
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All this talk about conspiracies and Biden and Putin and Covid and Ukraine causing the rise in fuel prices and inflation simply isn't so. It's because I retired and am now on a fixed income!!

Ed from NJ

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NickL #881950 05/31/22 3:19 pm
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No conspiracy . It's World banking Financial policy .
( Goose the economy with extra money if it ever looks like there's going to be even a hint of a recession )
No Banker or politician wants an economic recession on their watch .
There is no long-term policy , just cover your ass short-term

The USA alone , during the beginning of Covid , when trump still still president
printed 2~3.5 trillion dollars and dumped it into the Financial markets
to Stave off the US from world economic collapse
... the US economy had contracted by .... 30% in 1/2 of one year . ( a bigger collapse than the housing collapse of 2007 )

This was not just a United States policy , the top 10 economies in the world
Dumped money and low interest Loan promises
equivalent of 20% of their country's total GDPs ... into the money markets
all in an effort to ( Goose ) increase the velocity of money .

The international monetary fund  estimates
that since January 2020 governments have doled out $15.5 trillion dollars .
In various Covid Stimulus Schemes

( didn't you get your $1,200 in stimulus payments ) ... well so did everyone else
and everyone else's pizza restaurant in dry cleaning business

did it work ? Yes it worked , sort of . we're most of us still alive , aren't we .
But it did have a totally predictable side-effect
it devalued the money .

( supply and demand , there is an oversupply of money , so it's worth less )
If you had ( 1Mill.) $1,000,000 in the bank , you still have 1 million
but it now has the buying power of only about $800,000
... the same amount of money is worth less is purchasing power

If you had a 1 million dollar house , it's now worth 1.2 million
... it's not really worth more , it just takes more dollars to buy .

And the price of gas hasn't really gone up ... the value of your dollar
to purchase gasoline , or hamburger , or toilet paper , and everything else ...has gone down .

This massive worldwide devaluing of money
is particularly hard
on everyone who isn't an oligarch

NickL #881953 05/31/22 3:50 pm
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... the US economy had contracted by .... 30% in 1/2 of one year..
Yes.
And why this:
Quote
...the massive rises & falls are speculation purely & simply .
Is total bollocks.


1970 T120R - 'Anton'
1970 Commando - 'Bruno'
1967 T120R - 'Caesar'
1968 Lightning - 'Dora'
NickL #881989 06/01/22 6:06 am
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Well you can believe what you want
Some will tell you it is all becuse Mr Trump is no longer president
Some will tell you it is an oil producers conspiracey
Some will tell you it is covid
Some will tell you it is all because of the Russian invasion
Some will tell you it is all from pump primig the economy
And the previous video link tries to tell you it is all about lack of investment.
But if you can find some consumption charts and supply charts and price charts, both futures & spot
Then plot them all on the same time scale you will see the effect of speculation is a bigger influence
Plotting them on a condensed time scale makes it look like a trend but if you get the daily or evne real time charts from the excchange you will see a frenzie of ups & downs and that is the speculators .
Much wider gap between supply & demand in the past had a much smaller absolute price and smaller price flucuation
World oil consumption is still way below what it was pre covid when oil futures were 1/2 the price they are now .
While all of the above ( probably except the White house resident ) do have an effect upon oil prices, the massive price rise right now above the general trend is speculation
Those companies, organization & individual with access to eye watering amounts of cash trying to accumulate more cash at an ever increasing rate.
If I can make a 1% profit in a day on the futures market, that is 365% annually ( if you can repeat it each day ) and if I can get 10% in a day then I am laughing all the way to my $ 5,000,000 annual bonus

Last edited by BSA_WM20; 06/01/22 6:13 am.

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